Come late Sunday night, after awards are handed out, swag worth more than my house has been thrown carelessly into the back of various limousines, and best and worst dressed lists are being compiled, you, the viewer of the 81st Annual Academy Awards, will probably be wondering, what in God’s name was the Academy thinking? After arduously studying years worth of Oscar footage.
We at Cadenza half-understand the nomination snubs, backwards politics and weird rules (i.e. I’m pretty sure the Academy picks the winner for Best Supporting Actress out of a hat) that constitute this epic event.
So, we’ve decided to share our knowledge, and predict whom the Academy will choose to win, and why they were probably wrong.But first, the cinemaphiles,Stephanie Spera,Cecilia Razak,Percy OlsenTJ Keely ,Alex Torreno,Brian Stitt.
CR: What will win? “Slumdog,” or, in a typical Academy knee-jerk reaction, “Ben Button.” What should win is the film from the studio that will never be nominated in this category. Which isn’t too sad because, since Pixar has been so regularly creating movies that are beautiful, thrilling and with a skin-cell-close eye for detail that has been so often passed over, the Academy isn’t qualified to award it anything, anyway.
AT: “Slumdog” has absolutely cleaned up the Oscar season awards, including the Golden Globe Best Drama Picture, the PGA, the SAG ensemble award, and the BAFTA as well as appearing on numerous critics’ lists. The movie has swept thus far and will continue this trend at the Oscars.
BS: As much as the heavy handed fatalism in “Slumdog Millionaire” irks me, it’s hard not to root for this improbable Best picture nominee. The fact that it’s sure to win shouldn’t dissuade everyone from acting like it’s an underdog. I’m still upset that “The Dark Knight” couldn’t fight his way onto this list, but that’s life in the big city.
PO: The buzz around “Slumdog” is great and warranted. It’s one of those movies that you find yourself sitting all the way through, even if you know the ending.But “Milk” should win: The story was great, uplifting, and tragic. I can’t find a more relevant movie in the bunch.TK: What about “Synedoche, New York?” This film had no chance in hell of getting nominated. It’s puzzling, and I don’t entirely get it; I’m not sure anyone does. But it was a powerhouse, and the most ambitious film I have ever seen. Give it time, just give it time. Charlie Kaufman is a genius.
CR: For some reason, the Academy loves Ron Howard. Out of the noms, Gus Van Sant deserves to take this one home, though.BS: Danny Boyle is a filmmaker I respect deeply, due to the wide range of genres he’s attempted and his surprising success rate. While he’ll be the one picking up a statue on Sunday I’d like to see Gus Van Sant take it for turning what could have been ordinary Harvey Milk propaganda into a unique and moving film.
TJ: Christopher Nolan should get the statuette for creating a masterpiece out of a genre film adapted from comic books, while juggling an epic budget, scope, cast and slew of themes almost flawlessly.AT: But Danny Boyle has made some of the most original movies in recent times (“28 Days Later” and “Millions” to name a couple) and has succeeded in toping his previous feats with “Slumdog Millionaire.” This brilliant director is finally receiving recognition for his amazing work and should ride that train all the way to the Oscars Best Director.
PO: Not nominated, but not forgotten, Andrew Stanton’s direction of “Wall-E” filled these emotionless robots with wit and heart, and space has never been this romantic.CR: It’s just wrong that Angelina Jolie got a nod for her performance; not because it wasn’t good, but because it was so shamefully a groping manipulation designed solely for the tastes of the Academy. I can’t believe they fell for it. Scratch that. I really can. But, Kate Winslet should get it, and also probably will.
AT: Winslet has the most momentum of any of the nominees and the Academy seems to have absolutely loved “The Reader.” And come on, this is her sixth nomination without any wins; she deserves it. But while Kate Winslet is great in “The Reader,” she is phenomenal in “Revolutionary Road.” She is emotionally rousing and hypnotizing as a suppressed housewife, who wants to escape her current life in the suburbs. If Winslet should win her first Oscar, why shouldn’t it be for her better performance?
TJ: Kate Winslet will win, but Anne Hathaway should for temporarily distancing herself from “The Princess Diaries” (just in time for “Bride Wars”) and letting us know that this 23-year old actress can pack a punch; for going to unglamorous depths few of her peers would; and for filling an unflattering part with moments of comedy and sympathy.
SS: Hilary Swank agreed to “The Core” after her Oscar winning performance in “Boys Don’t Cry,” so maybe Anne Hathaway was thinking along the same lines when she agreed to “Bride Wars.”
CR: If Brad Pitt wins this, he better bring his entire make-up and CG crew onstage with him. They did the brunt of the work, and deserve at least three-quarters of that statuette.
Sean Penn should win, for the physicality he imbues in his Harvey Milk, but Mickey Rourke also displayed a certain perfection of physicality in “The Wrestler.” I’d be pleased with either, even more if Rourke weren’t simply playing himself.SS: Everyone likes a comeback: Mickey Rourke it is.
TJ: Rourke should take it for filling the most honest and probing character study of the year with equal parts experience and unflinching honesty; and for showing us what Rocky should have been like. Can’t wait for that surely-bleeped acceptance speech.
BS: I’m guessing Mickey Rourke will complete his comeback in Oscar’s underdog themed evening, and it’s great to see him back. I loved him in “Diner” and I adore him as Randy “the Ram” Robinson. But honestly, can Robert Downey Jr. not get some love for “Iron Man.” Sure, the movie is morally simple and has a bad finale, but does any movie this year owe such a debt to its lead? Without Downey Jr. “Iron Man” would have been a clunker. Let’s give credit where credit’s due.
PO: But the Academy naturally hearts biopics. Luckily, Penn is great in “Milk,” so no one will look bad when he picks up his second Oscar.PO: When you look back at the year’s biggest box-office smash, you realize how much crappier this movie would have been without Ledger as the Joker.
The role could not have been played better. Ledger was funny, scary and sadistic in playing the Joker, and the Academy will honor him for his life’s greatest accomplishment.SS: Yes, Heath Ledger was great in “Batman,” yes, the Academy gets off on giving out posthumous awards, but I think Robert Downey Jr. deserves some credit for making blackface socially acceptable-ish.
BS: Here’s the gimmie for the night. Heath Ledger should and will win this award. I’m confused as to how Michael Shannon made it onto this list, since he was distractingly obvious in a mediocre movie. The rest of them were good, but who can compete against that Nurse Joker waddle?CR: Heath is a lock. You know he died, right?
AT: Rosemarie DeWitt, the Rachel in “Rachel Getting Married,” stole the spotlight away from the amazing Anne Hathaway. She was emotional and riveting, yet was somehow overlooked in nearly all of the preseason awards and was ultimately snubbed at the Oscars.
SS: In 1992, Marisa Tomei won it for “My Cousin Vinny,” and she was phenomenal in “The Wrestler,” so, it probably be Penelope Cruz. PO: Cruz was strong and psychotic in Woody Allen’s latest. In short, you could not take your eyes off of her.TJ: Viola Davis will win for putting on a 12 minute acting clinic, opposite Meryl Streep, no less, and for driving the emotional heart of the film in one of the most shattering scenes of the year.
BS: I have a tingling fear that this award will be given to Penelope Cruz whom I hate with an unreasonable but intense fervor. Let’s see Viola Davis take up the Oscar for reminding us all how powerful and satisfying a one scene wonder can be.CR: I hope Davis gets really mucusy when she gives her acceptance speech.
PO: As silly as it is inspiring, the Academy will appreciate Philippe Petit’s (of “Man on Wire) genuine eccentricities, which flowed out of the screen through his interviews and look-a-like. I’m looking forward to his acceptance speech.
CR: “Man on Wire,” will win and should. What could be more fun than ballsy Frenchmen suspended hundreds of feet over New York? Unless it’s Werner Herzog suspending Klaus Kinski’s life.BS: I liked “Man on Wire” and think it will win but didn’t really get the awed feeling so many others claim to have felt. I’d much rather see Werner Herzog pick up this award for “Encounters at the End of the World” and go on some rant about God-knows-what. Trouble the Water is my spoiler pick here. Everyone knows the Academy cares about black people. Not like that louse of a former President.
AT: Are we serious with this one? Basically, “Wall-E” wins, no ifs, ands, or buts.PO: Why is “Wall-E” even in this category? Why does this category exist at all? Animation is a medium, not a genre, and having this category only invites voters to think about animated movies the other way around. If they do keep this category, just rename it to “Best Pixar Feature,” because that’s how it always goes. Well, unless the movie is “Cars.”
CR: It’s not fair to production companies putting out animated features that Pixar exists, since this is now the Pixar category. That said, I’m totally going with “Bolt” on this one.SS: Yeah, but a project associated with Miley Cyrus project winning an Oscar would be the equivalent of Milli Vanilli’s Grammy.
PO: No movie is as charming as “Wall-E.” Convention says that a movie carrying this many non-speaking characters should fall like a house of cards under its own weight, but the screenplay did not let that happen.CR: “Wall-E” needs to get this, even if all the dialogue consists of beeps and tweets. R2-D2 might have been reciting Shakespeare, for all we know.
PO: Milk will win though. You start to marvel at the story. It somehow managed to stay intimate while expanding way beyond California’s borders.AT: Of all of the nominees, “Milk” is the only one nominated for Best Picture, meaning more people liked this movie than the other movies nominated. It definitely seems to have the biggest push behind it, winning the Writer’s Guild of America Award. But, “In Bruges” is the most clever and intricate. It is funny and unique and is hands down the most deserving of the nominees. Overall, the movie has so many twists and turns that Martin McDonagh deserves the recognition.
BS: I’m putting my vote behind Martin McDonagh’s “In Bruges” script. Hilarious and terrible, his words were as beautiful as the city he put them in.TJ: Although it won’t win, the writing was the strongest part of “In Bruge.” McDonagh created an exhilarating crime film and existential morality play. Oh, and the genius wrote the first and only draft in two weeks.CR: “Dark Knight” should absolutely take this. The sign of really good editing is when you walk out of a theater and feel like you’ve been pummeled for two hours.
TK: Yes but the editing in “Slumdog Millionaire” helped bring the signature vibrancy of break-neck speed that is Danny Boyle; it made the film undeniable alive.BS: “Slumdog” should win this one and, despite my love of “The Dark Knight,” I think the Slumderdog actually deserves this one. The most salient criticism of “The Dark Knight” was the weight of the picture and how exhausting it was. “Slumdog Millionaire” was brisk, exciting and featured a marvelous accesability despite jumping back and forth in time.
AT: One of the first aspects I commented on after leaving “Slumdog Millionaire” was how amazing the editing was. It always managed to match exactly with the tone of the scene.PO: This category doesn’t feel like a competition. No movie last year was able to establish, let alone keep up, the crackling pace “Slumdog” holds throughout. The bloom-lit editing in this movie was like nothing anyone in America had really seen before, and I think the shock value will translate nicely into Oscar gold.
TK: “Dark Knight.” The flipping semi. ‘Nuff said.BS: The Dark Knight will win this category because people within the respective fields vote for the technical categories and because everyone who has ever shot on film is in complete awe of what Wally Pfister acheived on this movie. It should win because I loved this movie and the Acadamy should only award movies that I like.
PO: I always felt like the camera was enhancing the experience in this movie. It never dragged down the emotional parts or artificially sped up the action bits.CR: “Button” needs to win something, and as much as I yawned my way through it, it was very, very prettily done.
AT: But “Slumdog Millionaire” is an absolutely beautifully shot and produced film. Everything in the film is visually outstanding, adding to the overall overwhelming effect that this movie has on the viewer. Certainly, that merits the Oscar.PO: The camera had all the colors “The Dark Knight” didn’t care about, and they were blended into a supreme mix. I feel like this category will tagalong with a win at Best Picture.